Motor City Blues
Basketball Betting Lines
07/02/2009 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I've always thought of sports as the ultimate form of
escapist entertainment.
And a whole lot of people need to "escape" right about now.
It was announced Thursday that the nation's employers cut a larger-than-
expected 467,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate climbed to a 26-year
high of 9.5 percent. All told, 14.7 million Americans were unemployed in June.
Perhaps no city has been hit harder than Detroit, where the economic recession
has left the Motor City with an astounding 22 percent unemployment rate, over
two times the national average.
It wasn't always like that. Once upon a time, moving to Detroit was like
winning the middle-class lottery. People with little or no real education were
able to get jobs in the auto industry and in turn garner nice pay, great
benefits and a solid pension. It was the very definition of the "American
Dream," for so many.
Increased competition from foreign companies, the unyielding demands of the
powerful unions and flat out mismanagement at the very top collapsed the
entire auto industry from within, leaving a crumbling city both politically
and fiscally.
Inasmuch, the people of Motown could use an "escape."
In recent years, the Pistons have been great at providing a few hours of
escapist entertainment. Six straight trips to the Eastern Conference finals
made late spring basketball a birthright for a generation of hoops fans...
Until last year.
Convinced his veteran-laden team was stale and couldn't get over the ultimate
hump, Pistons president Joe Dumars pushed the plunger and blew up his team.
The results were disastrous.
Joe D. jettisoned the underrated Flip Saunders for the untested and unproven
Michael Curry, and compounded that mistake with the ill-conceived Chauncey
Billups-Allen Iverson trade.
Curry's decision to bench veteran stalwart Rip Hamilton in favor of Iverson
was not well-received by his team. Gone was Detroit's legendary balance,
defensive prowess and chemistry, not to mention the run of six straight trips
to the East finals.
In his first year directing the perennial championship contenders, Curry led
the Pistons to just a 39-43 record, good for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern
Conference. Detroit was then quickly swept in the first round of the playoffs
by the top-seeded Cavaliers, who won each game by double digits.
Needless to say, this is a big summer for Dumars.
First, the Hall of Famer did an about-face Tuesday and fired Curry, just two
months after he had held a press conference to confirm that his embattled
coach would return to the Motor City in 2009-10.
Then the team - which did acquire plenty of cap space in the Iverson deal -
dove into free agency headfirst on Wednesday, reportedly agreeing to deals
with a pair of former UConn stars, sharp-shooting guard Ben Gordon, late of
the Chicago Bulls, and emerging forward Charlie Villanueva, formerly of the
Milwaukee Bucks.
Gordon, an offensive-minded two-guard just like Iverson, had been on the
Pistons' radar for quite some time and is a much better fit than the former
MVP.
"Ben agreed to come here knowing he would come off the bench," a source told
NBA.com. "That makes it completely different than Iverson coming here...Gordon
is choosing to come here and play the super sub role."
Villanueva, meanwhile, became available after Milwaukee inexplicably declined
to make him a qualifying offer on Monday.
Now, Detroit will feature a three-guard rotation of Rodney Stuckey, Hamilton
and Gordon, with Tayshaun Prince at small forward and Villanueva at power
forward.
The problem is the pivot, where battle-tested veterans Rasheed Wallace and
Antonio McDyess are both expected to move on, leaving the perpetually
underachieving Kwame Brown as the only current option.
Like the city they play in, the Pistons are still a long way away from their
glory days. But Dumars' dealings may have provided something far more
important than any championship trophy -- a welcome distraction for an
embattled fan base.
<< Thrashers sign Antropov
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Thrashers signed unrestricted free
agent forward Nik Antropov to a multi-year contract Thursday. Terms of the
deal were not disclosed, per team policy.
The 29-year-old compiled career-highs
<< Bremen's Schaaf confirms Naldo exit
Bremen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Werder Bremen manager Thomas Schaaf has
confirmed that Brazilian defender Naldo will be allowed to leave the club this
summer.
The 26-year-old centre-half has been with the Bundesliga club for four s
<< Twins demote Henn, to recall Duensing
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins have assigned pitcher
Sean Henn outright to Triple-A Rochester and plan to recall left-hander Brian
Duensing prior to Friday's game with the Detroit Tigers.
Henn, who signed as a mi
<< Gudjohnsen expects to leave Barca
Barcelona, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barcelona forward Eidur Gudjohnsen is
content to wait on a decision over where he will be playing his football next
season.
The 30-year-old is expected to exit the Camp Nou this summer, but his age
<< Longwood gives hoop's coach Gillian multi-year extension
Farmville, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Longwood University has extended the
contract of men's basketball head coach Mike Gillian. Financial terms were
not released but the extension covers multiple years.
The Lancers were 17-14 la
United loses out on Benzema >>
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manchester United's hopes of signing
Karim Benzema are over after the France striker agreed to a six-year contract
with Real Madrid.
Benzema, 21, was believed to have been earmarked by United
Wolfsburg's Veh backs Dzeko decision >>
Wolfsburg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Wolfsburg coach Armin Veh has backed
the decision to shun offers for star striker Edin Dzeko and keep him at the
club next season.
The 23-year-old Bosnia international had seemed set to join
NFL suspends Jets LB Pace for four games >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Jets linebacker Calvin Pace has been
suspended without pay for the first four games of the 2009 season for
violating the NFL's policy on performance enhancing substances, the league
announc
Atletico swoops for Juanito >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Atletico Madrid has completed the signing of
central defender Juanito from relegated Real Betis.
The 32-year-old Spain international stopper has been with the Seville-based
club for more than a decad
Wolverhampton completes Milijas signing >>
Wolverhampton, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wolverhampton has completed the
signing of Nenad Milijas after being granted a work permit for the Serbia
midfielder.
Milijas, 26, agreed a four-year contract with the newly-promoted Prem
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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